March 2026 Update: How to Navigate a Volatile Energy Market

Due to geopolitical conflict and other factors, energy markets are entering a period of sustained volatility that will directly impact fleet operating costs in 2026. Recent industry analysis highlights that fuel prices, electricity costs, and grid reliability risks are increasingly interconnected, and fleets should be planning with this broader energy landscape in mind.

Here are key takeaways fleet operators should be aware of to help navigate this period of uncertainty.

​Diesel Exposure Is Increasing Faster Than Gasoline
Current global supply risks are affecting diesel more sharply than gasoline. Diesel supply is more dependent on international shipping routes and refining capacity, making it particularly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions. As a result, diesel prices have experienced sharper and faster increases, which is especially relevant for Class 8 and heavy‑duty fleets.

What This Means for Fleets:
Diesel‑intensive operations should expect greater price volatility and plan budgets with wider contingencies than in prior years.

​Fuel Price Spikes Are Becoming More Frequent
​Recent market activity has pushed wholesale diesel and gasoline prices beyond levels previously considered “worst‑case” scenarios. Industry experts emphasized that these spikes are no longer rare events tied to singular crises — volatility is becoming a more regular feature of the fuel market.

What This Means for Fleets?
Reactive budgeting based on historical averages may no longer be sufficient. Fleets should prepare for sharper swings, even over short time periods.

Planning Ahead Is Becoming a Competitive Advantage
Across fuel, electricity, and facilities, the consistent message from industry experts was that energy volatility should now be treated as a core operating condition not a temporary anomaly.

What This Means for Fleets?
Fleets that actively monitor energy trends and factor volatility into planning decisions will be better positioned to protect margins, maintain service levels, and avoid surprise cost shocks.

How Fleets Can Save Money in the Short-Term
It is currently unknown how long this period of volatility will last. In the short term, there are actions fleets can take to save money:

• Monitor idling, speeding and aggressive driving to avoid excessive fuel consumption
• Keep up on mechanical issues that can impact fuel efficiency, such as ensuring properly maintained tire pressure and performing tune-ups and oil changes
• Reduce vehicle weight and drag by removing unnecessary cargo and being mindful of equipment storage
• Make sure you use the right size vehicles for the job

Fleet managers should be aware of two compounding pressures that are likely to influence vehicle pricing and availability through the remainder of 2026. Both reinforce the same planning recommendation: order earlier rather than later.

Tariffs: $35+ Billion in OEM Costs and Rising
An analysis of automaker financial reports through mid-March 2026 found that tariff costs across the industry have reached at least $35.4 billion since 2025. Toyota carries the largest single exposure at approximately $9.1 billion for its 2026 fiscal year. The Detroit Three — GM, Ford, and Stellantis — collectively absorbed approximately $6.5 billion in 2025. BMW, Honda, Hyundai-Kia, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Subaru, and Volkswagen each expect tariff-related costs exceeding $1 billion.

Source: Automotive News
Most automakers initially absorbed these costs rather than pass them to buyers — betting the tariffs would be temporary. That strategy has limits. J.P. Morgan projects tariff costs will rise to $45 billion in year two and $52 billion in year three, with automakers and consumers expected

to share the burden equally, contributing to a projected 3% increase in new-vehicle price inflation. Vehicle pricing that has held relatively stable through 2025 is at increasing risk of adjustment. Ordering earlier in the model year, before mid-cycle pricing adjustments, is the best available hedge.

Strait of Hormuz: A New Supply Chain Shock
Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has effectively halted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. The disruption began in late February 2026 and has escalated through March, with vessel traffic through the strait falling to near zero. The strait normally handles approximately 20% of global daily oil trade.

All major ocean carriers — including Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, CMA CGM, and MSC — have formally suspended transits through the strait and rerouted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days per voyage and approximately $1 million in additional fuel cost per ship. Approximately 170 containerships carrying an estimated 450,000 TEUs were stranded in or near the strait at the outset of the disruption, with vessel traffic falling to near zero. Oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time in four years, peaking at $126 per barrel, before settling back near to $100 as of mid-March.

As noted above, none of our OEM or upfitter partners have officially reported any confirmed impact on vehicle production or pricing at this time. Merchants Fleet is monitoring the situation and will communicate directly with clients if that changes. The shipping developments above are provided as context — understanding the environment your supply chain operates in is part of what we do as your fleet planning partner.

The planning recommendation is the same as with tariffs: place orders now rather than waiting. Every week of delay on a factory order placed today pushes delivery further into a period of greater uncertainty.

California sales restrictions on select Ford Super Duty diesel chassis cab models have been lifted, according to a recent dealer communication.

​Diesel-powered F-550 and F-600 chassis cab units above 19,500-lbs. GVWR can now be sold or delivered to customers who register them in any state, including California.

​Before the update, those vehicles were subject to sales and delivery limitations tied to California registration.

​Previously required attestations are no longer required when ordering F-550 and F-600 diesel chassis cabs. Additionally, F-550 models equipped with Payload Plus Upgrade Package 1 and 2 can be solder or delivered to customers who register their vehicles in any state.

​Ford also noted the previous EFC16671 notice is no longer valid.

Build-out dates confirmed: The 26MY Chevrolet Express Cargo & Cutaway and GMC Savana Cargo & Cutaway final order cutoff is May 29, 2026. Note that 26MY ordering for the Chevrolet Express and GMC Savana Passenger Van is already suspended.

​Important ordering change for all Express and Savana orders placed after March 2, 2026: ​Due to a hardware constraint, 26MY Express and Savana models cannot be ordered with the standard embedded OnStar hardware (UE1). GM has created a new RPO-based process to maintain telematics capability through a plug-in Fleet Adapter instead. Here’s what your team and clients need to know:

All orders must now use RPO code UE0 (OnStar delete). Selecting UE0 automatically defaults to P1J — an 8-year OnStar Vehicle Telematics and Fleet Adapter Hardware plan. Clients who do not want OnStar capability must add P1K to explicitly remove it. A Fleet Account Number (FAN) is required to order with these RPOs.

​If ordering with telematics (P1J — default): After the vehicle ships, the client must separately request a Fleet Adapter dongle through OnStar Vehicle Insights to activate connectivity. The Fleet Adapter is available at no additional cost and supports the full OnStar Vehicle Insights feature set: tire pressure monitoring, location alerts, trip history, fuel economy insights, engine air filter status, on-demand reporting, and in-app/email notifications.

​If ordering without telematics (P1K): Vehicles will have no OnStar or OVI capabilities.

​This is a 26MY-only change. The embedded OnStar module is expected to return for 27MY Express and Savana orders.

​Telematics is an important part of your fleet program, and this change is a good opportunity to make sure your solution is aligned with your broader fleet management needs. Your Merchants Fleet Representative can walk you through your options — including the GM Fleet Adapter process and alternatives — to help you make the most informed decision for your fleet.

Several 26MY models hit their final order cutoffs this month. Once a build-out date passes, the model year closes. For some models, the 27MY replacement production doesn’t begin for weeks — creating a gap where ordering simply isn’t possible. Use the dates and information below as your planning guide, and if a cutoff has passed or an alternative is needed, your Merchants Fleet Experts can help identify the best path forward

​GM — Cutoff March 27
The most urgent action item in this newsletter. The 26MY Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Regular Cab and 26MY GMC Sierra 1500 Regular Cab final order cutoff is March 27, 2026. Regular Cab configurations will be offline for an estimated 8–9 months for plant retooling as GM prepares the next-generation 2027 Silverado platform. There is no bridge to 27MY Regular Cab availability until late 2026. Clients with Regular Cab requirements must order by March 27 or pivot to an alternative configuration immediately.

​Also closing March 27: Cadillac LYRIQ and Cadillac CT4. Note that the 27MY LYRIQ production startup isn’t until April 30 — meaning there is approximately a 33-day ordering gap between the 26MY close and 27MY availability.

​Hyundai — Cutoff March 22
The following 26MY Hyundai models close March 22: Santa Fe (Gas & HEV), Sonata (Gas & HEV), Santa Cruz, and Ioniq 5. Clients with open requirements on any of these models need to act, however please contact Merchants for additional order planning dialogue as 27MY or look at out of stock alternatives.

​Nissan — Multiple Cutoffs Already Passed
Several 26MY Nissan models closed at the beginning of March. If you have clients with open requirements on any of these, stock channel is the only path for near-term fulfillment: Frontier King Cab (3/5), Kicks (3/1), Armada (3/1), Rogue S Trim (3/1), Rogue Non-S Trim (3/1), and Altima (3/1). Please flag any open orders to your advisor immediately.

​Acura — 26MY RDX AWD build-out: March 2026
Toyota — Please note All 26MY Toyota models have reached build-out as of March, except the bZ BEV, bZ Woodland BEV, C-HR BEV, Crown HEV, and RAV4 PHEV. Clients with open requirements on any standard Toyota gas or hybrid model should confirm order status with their advisor now.

April and May 26MY Build-Outs: Coming Up Fast

The following 26MY models close in April and May. Begin discussion around transitioning clients to 27MY where applicable.

• ​Closes May 8 Ford Transit
• ​Closes May 1 Ford Super Duty
• ​Closes April 24 Buick Envision, Buick Enclave, Chevrolet Traverse, Chevrolet Blazer EV, GMC Acadia
• ​Closes April 22 Hyundai Venue, Hyundai Nexo
• Closes April 1 Nissan Sentra, Nissan Frontier Crew Cab

​Note: For Traverse, Blazer EV, and Acadia, the 27MY production startup is April 30 — approximately a six-day gap from 26MY close to 27MY availability.

27MY Order Startups: March & April

New model year production is opening now on several key platforms. Contact your advisor to discuss 27MY order strategy on any of the models below.​

March — Now Open or Opening This Week
Model and 27MY Startup

• Chrysler Pacifica – 3/12/26
• Cadillac Vistiq – 3/5/26
• Chevrolet Equinox – 3/11/26
• GMC Terrain – 3/11/26
• Cadillac Optiq – 3/19/26
• Lincoln Navigator – 3/16/26
• Ford Expedition – 3/24/26

​April — Coming Up
Model and 27MY Startup

• Chevrolet Corvette – 4/16/26
• Buick Enclave – 4/30/26
• Cadillac LYRIQ – 4/30/26
• Chevrolet Traverse – 4/30/26
• Chevrolet Blazer EV 4/30/26
• GMC Acadia – 4/30/26

2027 Chrysler Pacifica specs are available in TotalView and order banks are open to submit orders.

​The RAM Promaster City is being re-introduced to the market. Production will begin in Q4 in 2026, and delivery date is tentatively set to begin in Q1 of 2027. More information will be shared once details are available.